Increasingly, your fellow European commuter is likely to be listening to an audio book as reading the latest Harry Potter or Steven King paperback! Audio books have come a long way from being just the preserve of the visually impaired to a popular alternative way to enjoy a good book. The range of audio books available to the European public is growing by at a fast rate, from a passionate love story to science fiction. Listeners are finding new ways to use audio books from learning a language to as an aid to relaxation.
THE EXPANDING MARKET
This is not surprising given that the European audio book market continues to grow ‘at 20% a year’ reports..... To Read On http://www.oxfordprospect.co.uk/LONDONBOOKFAIR.htm
Monday, April 16, 2007
Middle East and the Left
>1. The claim that the Allies intervention in Iraq was illegal.
>a. No international court has ruled such. It is only the legal opinion
>of some lawyers, not all lawyers. After all, you or I could buy a legal
>opinion (argument) to support one¢s case. It is just a legal opinion; I
>could go to the very same lawyers and pay them to formulate a totally
>different opinion?
>b. The claim that the present Iraqi government is not legitimate. It
>seems a lot more legitimate than that of the previous Saddam regime, which
>came to power in a military coup. At least the present regime has had
>elections, despite the interference from both domestic and external anti
>democratic forces.
>c. It's odd when we hear demands from old anti American lefties like
>Tony Benn and George Galloway for the Allies to withdraw; I don't recall
>them demanding the withdrawal of external fascistic antidemocratic forces
>or the encouragement of domestic groups to work towards a peaceful solution
>in Iraq with the present government, neither have they put forward workable
>solutions that will help turn Iraq into a democratic and prosperous state.
>If the claim of these groups is to encourage the Allies to withdraw, they
>are certainly going about it in a strange way. The most logical way, surely
>would have been to work with the Allies to rebuild Iraq; this would have
>saved lives, brought both prosperity to Iraq and the early withdrawal of
>the Coalition Forces.
>d. What especially saddens me is the lack of active support by many in
>the anti American left for the many brave Iraqi men and women and in the
>rest of the Middle East fighting for trade union rights, women¢s rights and
>civil liberties. Perhaps, this lack of support is explained because they
>prefer to be professional contrarians, rather than uphold the principles of
>their founders; Jefferson. Wilberforce, Paine and Pankhurst etc.
>2. As for the maritime boundary between Iraq and Iran.
>a. Many seem to be implying that the Iranian claims on this issue are
>correct and have been ratified by both sides. This is not the case. You
>will also find Iran has maritime and territorial disputes with many of its
>neighbours including the Gulf States. Many Gulf States feel intimidated by
>the historic expansionist or imperialist policies that Iran has practiced
>in the region for centuries. For examples
>· http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4619604.stm
>· http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/849068.stm
>http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=499&language_id=1
>· http://www.didyouknow.cd/story/disputes.htm#gulf
>b. In this light the developments of Iranian missiles that can strike
>Munich from Tehran, I suppose make a sort of sense. Could it be Iran wants
>to intimidate European countries as well? This makes it understandable that
>EU states like Poland and Britain support the installation of an anti
>missile shield by NATO.
>c. As to why there has only been luck luster support for Britain¢s case
>in this maritime dispute or it could be that countries like France and
>Germany fear for the potential loss in trade they have with Iran.
>3. But what I find truly astonishing is despite the plethora of
>articles, books, speeches etc I have not seen attempt to try to set out
>what the present position would be in the Middle East or the World if no
>action had been taken against Saddam.
>a. If he had been allowed to stay in power and able to continue his
>reign of terror, gassing or murdering any dissident Shia or Kurd, probably
>invading Saudi Arabia, sponsoring terrorist cells around the world,
>building up atomic material (only for peaceful purposes of course!) as Iran
>is doing etc. Would we still be arguing he should stay in power?
>b. What would your prediction be?
Saturday, March 10, 2007
‘Aurea hamo piscari’ (money talks).
The current situation in the Middle East is inevitable, given the power of the pro-Israeli lobby, in determining American policy in the area. We must live with the real politic and not some model of the world as we would wish it to be.
Egypt, Jordan and many in the Lebanese government have leant this hard lesson that it does not pay to oppose Israel on the battlefield. Instead, it pays to make a deal with Israel and the United States. Every year since 1979 Egypt has received over $2bn per annum and Jordan $500m a year. While the Lebanese government has had not much of a problem arranging foreign emergency aid since the August battles, already the EU have offered some €150m in emergency aid.
It is time Hamas and Hezbollah learnt this lesson, they should open negations’ immediately to make a financial deal. But this means they will have to transform themselves from rather disorganized militarily ineffectual terrorist groups, into respectable, democratic and not corrupt political parties, that the West can deal with.
Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland had to learn this lesson, it took courage and leadership, and hopefully Hamas and Hezbollah have the people to take such politically difficult decisions. In making such a deal, it is a win-win situation for the West and the people, Hamas and Hezbollah claim to represent. The poor in the West Bank, Gaza and Lebanon need the Western investment in economic development necessary to drag these people out of the despair of poverty, which nearly fifty years of conflict has not managed to do.
Respectability brings other benefits, being able to fight the pro-Israeli lobby in the US Congress and the world stage on a less unequal footing. While prosperity has proved a very effective weapon in undermining the influence of extremist terror groups, as both Britain found with the IRA and Spain discovered in its dealings with ETA.
As saying goes ‘aurea hamo piscari’
Egypt, Jordan and many in the Lebanese government have leant this hard lesson that it does not pay to oppose Israel on the battlefield. Instead, it pays to make a deal with Israel and the United States. Every year since 1979 Egypt has received over $2bn per annum and Jordan $500m a year. While the Lebanese government has had not much of a problem arranging foreign emergency aid since the August battles, already the EU have offered some €150m in emergency aid.
It is time Hamas and Hezbollah learnt this lesson, they should open negations’ immediately to make a financial deal. But this means they will have to transform themselves from rather disorganized militarily ineffectual terrorist groups, into respectable, democratic and not corrupt political parties, that the West can deal with.
Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland had to learn this lesson, it took courage and leadership, and hopefully Hamas and Hezbollah have the people to take such politically difficult decisions. In making such a deal, it is a win-win situation for the West and the people, Hamas and Hezbollah claim to represent. The poor in the West Bank, Gaza and Lebanon need the Western investment in economic development necessary to drag these people out of the despair of poverty, which nearly fifty years of conflict has not managed to do.
Respectability brings other benefits, being able to fight the pro-Israeli lobby in the US Congress and the world stage on a less unequal footing. While prosperity has proved a very effective weapon in undermining the influence of extremist terror groups, as both Britain found with the IRA and Spain discovered in its dealings with ETA.
As saying goes ‘aurea hamo piscari’
Saturday, March 03, 2007
Commuter's face longer journeys to work due to bus timetable changes
Commuter's face longer journeys to work due to bus timetable changes
Changes to Route 7
26 February 2007
Route 7 between Kidlington, Oxford and Barton is to be split into two halves from Sunday 1st April 2007.
The decision has been made due to difficulties faced during recent major roadworks schemes, including Green Road roundabout and Oxford High Street. Further work is planned over future months that could have a major impact on route 7.
The question is why doesn’t the bus company, instead run buses between Headington and Kidlington via the JR and Marston Ferry Road? So that buses, avoid the delays caused by the never ending roadworks in Oxford City Centre that the Highways Authority is so fond of.
It would mean for many a much improved bus service for passengers travelling to school and work. while also cutting out the tedious journey through Oxford city centre.
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Changes to Route 7
26 February 2007
Route 7 between Kidlington, Oxford and Barton is to be split into two halves from Sunday 1st April 2007.
The decision has been made due to difficulties faced during recent major roadworks schemes, including Green Road roundabout and Oxford High Street. Further work is planned over future months that could have a major impact on route 7.
The question is why doesn’t the bus company, instead run buses between Headington and Kidlington via the JR and Marston Ferry Road? So that buses, avoid the delays caused by the never ending roadworks in Oxford City Centre that the Highways Authority is so fond of.
It would mean for many a much improved bus service for passengers travelling to school and work. while also cutting out the tedious journey through Oxford city centre.
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Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Should Europe see a gas cartel as a threat to its supplies?

At a time when gas exporting countries are considering the formation of an OPEC type gas producer’s cartel. EU President Barrosso has argued the case for a united European energy strategy in order to improve and maintain a more favourable bargaining position. Energy experts argue that such a strategy is necessary, but, doubts, given the very differences that exist with gas production, distribution and marketing, that the formulation of an OPEC type organisation is viable. In any case, current Russian energy export policy is against surrendering any part of its existing power by involvement implicit in any OPEC type organisation. They conclude that Europe should formulate an energy strategy, but the most pressing question is, irrespective of the development of a gas exporter’s cartel, how Europe deals with its increasing dependency on gas imports from Russia and elsewhere.
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Sunday, February 25, 2007
The question of Oxford becoming a unitary authority
The trouble is Oxford's case for becoming a unitary authority weakened because of the following factors.
The proposed area is too small - both in terms of tax base and population. A future Oxford unitary authority needs to include Botley, Abingdon, Wheatley, Kidlington, Garsington and Kennington within the proposed boundaries of a future unitary authority, if it is to be viable.
At the moment there is a much stronger case for Oxfordshire County Council being made into a unitary authority than Oxford with its present proposals.
Even if the county was made unitary, there are problems - the current county ward or division boundaries are drawn in such a way that it makes it significantly easier to be elected as a Tory councilor than from any other party.
The current situation means that there is a conservative majority in seats at county hall (43 seats with 34% of the vote) while all the other parties combined only won 31 seats with 66% of the vote.
So in terms of administrative efficiency then having a single unitary authority for whole county is the best bet.
But in terms of voter accountability, the best model is a unitary authority for Oxford that includes its immediate neighbours.
Otherwise the best solution is to reform the voting system used to elect our county councilors.
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The proposed area is too small - both in terms of tax base and population. A future Oxford unitary authority needs to include Botley, Abingdon, Wheatley, Kidlington, Garsington and Kennington within the proposed boundaries of a future unitary authority, if it is to be viable.
At the moment there is a much stronger case for Oxfordshire County Council being made into a unitary authority than Oxford with its present proposals.
Even if the county was made unitary, there are problems - the current county ward or division boundaries are drawn in such a way that it makes it significantly easier to be elected as a Tory councilor than from any other party.
The current situation means that there is a conservative majority in seats at county hall (43 seats with 34% of the vote) while all the other parties combined only won 31 seats with 66% of the vote.
So in terms of administrative efficiency then having a single unitary authority for whole county is the best bet.
But in terms of voter accountability, the best model is a unitary authority for Oxford that includes its immediate neighbours.
Otherwise the best solution is to reform the voting system used to elect our county councilors.
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Tuesday, February 20, 2007
Stephan Eklof’s ‘Pirates in Paradise’
Stephan Eklof’s ‘Pirates in Paradise’ is a description and analysis of modern piracy today in South East Asia. Eklof paints a picture of today’s maritime criminals quite unlike that portrayed by Johnny Depp in ‘Pirates of the Caribbean’ or the characters in J.M.Barrie’s Peter Pan and Robert Louis Stevenson’s Treasure Island. It is clear from Eklof’s book, that modern day pirates are much more ruthless, violent and murderous than those portrayed for our entertainment.
Eklof shows that piracy started to become a problem in the west in the 18th century. In fact it is a much older problem, and even the Romans had repeated problems with this form of maritime crime. In 75 BC Julius Caesar was kidnapped and held for ransom by pirates, and in 49 AD Pliny was sent by Emperor Claudius to investigate piracy in the bay of Naples.
So by the time of the ‘golden age of piracy’ these maritime gangsters were following a very ancient, if ignoble tradition for Eklof makes clear that most fiction writers and Hollywood films tended to glamorise this period between 1716 and 1726.It is estimated during this period some 218 vessels a year were attacked. Eklof notes that crews of target ships, once they had caught sight of the ‘Jolly Roger’ would rather surrender than die at the hands of the pirates.To read more about this book http://www.oxfordprospect.co.uk/Piratesinparadise.htm
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Eklof shows that piracy started to become a problem in the west in the 18th century. In fact it is a much older problem, and even the Romans had repeated problems with this form of maritime crime. In 75 BC Julius Caesar was kidnapped and held for ransom by pirates, and in 49 AD Pliny was sent by Emperor Claudius to investigate piracy in the bay of Naples.
So by the time of the ‘golden age of piracy’ these maritime gangsters were following a very ancient, if ignoble tradition for Eklof makes clear that most fiction writers and Hollywood films tended to glamorise this period between 1716 and 1726.It is estimated during this period some 218 vessels a year were attacked. Eklof notes that crews of target ships, once they had caught sight of the ‘Jolly Roger’ would rather surrender than die at the hands of the pirates.To read more about this book http://www.oxfordprospect.co.uk/Piratesinparadise.htm
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Thursday, January 11, 2007
Debora L.Spar, The Baby Business: How Money, Science, and Politics Drive the Commerce of Conception. HARVARD BUSINESS SCHOOL PRESS 2006:
Deborah Spar’s latest book, ‘The Baby Business’ introduces a new and distasteful (?) subject of IVF (In Vitro Fertilisation), commonly known as “test tube babies”. This medico-scientific advances in human fertilisation has raised a storm of controversy involving, ethical, moral and commercial issues. Want a child, but don’t or can’t do it the traditional way, well you can go to your neighbourhood fertility clinic, with luck and sufficient funds for the baby of your preferred gender and optimal genetic mix using IVF. There are several different IVF techniques available, but the usual process involves; interalia, the women taking fertility drugs to help her produce more eggs. The eggs are then harvested and fertilized in the laboratory. The woman is given hormone drugs to prepare her womb to receive the fertilized eggs. The fertilized eggs are placed inside the womb and a normal pregnancy follows. As a result of IVF a child growing up today could have two fathers and three mothers. The sperm donor that produced the sperm, the woman that sold her eggs to the clinic, the surrogate mother who rented out her womb, and the infertile parents, that are bringing up the child.
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Sunday, December 24, 2006
FAIT A COMPLIS FOR OXFORD UNIVERSITY REFORMS?
FAIT A COMPLIS FOR OXFORD UNIVERSITY REFORMS?
‘There are many arguments for the new proposals but one is that the Charities Act 2006, which passed into law on 9 November, brings Oxford and Cambridge - and the individual colleges - for the first time into the scope of charity regulators. A letter read out during the Congregation’s first debate on the White Paper showed that the Higher Education Funding Council strongly favours, though it will not immediately enforce, a majority of independents among a charity’s trustees’
SOURCE: FROM THE MASTER: LORD BUTLER OF BROCKWELL: - ‘UNIV NEWSLETTER’ ISSUE 25 MICHAELMAS 2006 – Page 1.
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‘There are many arguments for the new proposals but one is that the Charities Act 2006, which passed into law on 9 November, brings Oxford and Cambridge - and the individual colleges - for the first time into the scope of charity regulators. A letter read out during the Congregation’s first debate on the White Paper showed that the Higher Education Funding Council strongly favours, though it will not immediately enforce, a majority of independents among a charity’s trustees’
SOURCE: FROM THE MASTER: LORD BUTLER OF BROCKWELL: - ‘UNIV NEWSLETTER’ ISSUE 25 MICHAELMAS 2006 – Page 1.
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Thursday, November 16, 2006
Oxford Mail editorial comment
Describing Blackbird Leys, Barton and Wood Farm as some dingy neglected inner city estate in your editorial ‘A kick in the teeth for estates’ (Oxford Mail Monday 13th November 2006), seems to me far from the truth.
In these well appointed estates, which are bounded by Oxford’s glorious Green Belt, residents are never far away from green open spaces where they can enjoy fresh air as they exercise. Describing estates like Wood Farm as lacking in open space is so untrue .As North Oxford has a damp Port Meadow, Wood Farm has that natural treasure, that is Shotover Country Park, with its fantastic views, nature trails, woods and wildlife.
As for lacking in recreational facilities as you describe these so called neglected estates. Many neighbouring suburbs look on in envy at the council’s legacy of sports and recreational facilities available on these estates. Barton has its new pool, Blackbird Leys had its sports centre refurbished recently, no you can’t make the case that these suburban estates fit the picture painted in your editorial.
If parents are concerned about the fitness of there children, I suggest they take them to the other recreational sport facilities available to residents in this city. No the real question that needs to be asked, were there mistakes made in the location of such facilities. After all, Cowley Road seems to be blessed with sports facilities, while other areas like Marston, Rose Hill and Headington have been seriously neglected. http://www.oxfordprospect.co.uk/index.htm
In these well appointed estates, which are bounded by Oxford’s glorious Green Belt, residents are never far away from green open spaces where they can enjoy fresh air as they exercise. Describing estates like Wood Farm as lacking in open space is so untrue .As North Oxford has a damp Port Meadow, Wood Farm has that natural treasure, that is Shotover Country Park, with its fantastic views, nature trails, woods and wildlife.
As for lacking in recreational facilities as you describe these so called neglected estates. Many neighbouring suburbs look on in envy at the council’s legacy of sports and recreational facilities available on these estates. Barton has its new pool, Blackbird Leys had its sports centre refurbished recently, no you can’t make the case that these suburban estates fit the picture painted in your editorial.
If parents are concerned about the fitness of there children, I suggest they take them to the other recreational sport facilities available to residents in this city. No the real question that needs to be asked, were there mistakes made in the location of such facilities. After all, Cowley Road seems to be blessed with sports facilities, while other areas like Marston, Rose Hill and Headington have been seriously neglected. http://www.oxfordprospect.co.uk/index.htm
Monday, October 09, 2006
Time to get Africa out of the aid habit
After a decade of aid fatigue and
dwindling development assistance,
foreign aid is once again at centre
stage. Recent years have seen a flurry of
new aid initiatives – the UN Millennium
Development Goals, the Monterrey
Consensus, the UK’s Commission on Africa,
and the G8 pledge to double the amount of
aid, to mention only the most significant
ones. And before 2010, governments’
spending on aid, as measured by the OECD,
is projected at well above $100bn a year.
Much as these initiatives should be
applauded for shining the spotlight on
many neglected issues of poverty and
human hardships in developing countries,
they also need to be judged against a
backdrop of our accumulated knowledge of
what works and what does not. That has yet
to happen. Indeed, there has been
widespread neglect of the knowledge and
experience we have gained from aid-giving
over the last 50 years, and this constitutes
a key problem in the new drive for aid. There
is a discrepancy between the rush to
increase foreign aid and the general lack of
interest in the quality of aid, meaning its
effectiveness. This not only suggests a
mismanagement of public resources but
also an absence of curiosity about
establishing which are the best methods of
helping poor countries to develop.
This is not to say that we already have the
answers to all the mysteries of poverty, welfare
and foreign aid. But we do know a lot and have
garnered enough experience to say over the
last 50 years aid has failed overall to deliver the
sort of economic growth and development we
had hoped for. And the prospects for the
future doesn’t look much better.
Of the researchers who have studied the
links between aid and economic growth, few
have found conclusive evidence that aid
gives a major boost to growth. On the
contrary, most research suggests a negative
correlation between the two. This doesn’t
mean that receiving developing aid is the
cause of a country’s low growth. In both
cases, a cause-and-effect relationship is
difficult to find through broad statistical
cross-country analysis; several researchers
have employed advanced analytical
techniques but the results have varied from a
weak negative effect to a weak positive effect
(the latter after adjusting for the type of aid
and the policy milieu in recipient countries).
The sad overall conclusion that has to be
drawn is that development aid does not have
the stimulatory effect on growth that donor
countries have always intended.
A case in point is development aid to
Africa that has amounted to more than $1
trillion since 1950. Between 1970 and 1995,
aid to Africa increased rapidly, with aid
dependency (measured as the aid-to-GDP
ratio) standing at nearly 20% in the early
1990s. Measured another way, the mean value
of aid as a share of government expenditures
in African countries was well above 50%
during the 20-year period up to 1995. During
the same period, per capita GDP growth in
Africa decreased, so that many countries in
Africa are actually poorer today than they
were when they gained their independence.
This sad truth does little to support the
idea that development assistance is the
flywheel that starts the motor of economic
activity. But the argument continues to be
that aid is an essential part of the process of
attracting new investment and fuelling
sustained growth. Because poor countries
lack the resources to finance investments,
runs this argument, there is a financing gap
between domestic savings and the resources
needed to finance the level of investments
required to achieve growth. If the financing
gap theory of aid (yes, it is merely a theory)
had been true, investment levels would have
risen considerably and long-term growth
would have resulted. In that case, using the
models applied by the World Bank and other
donor organisations, per capita GDP in most
African countries should be at the same level
as in New Zealand, Spain or Portugal.
Instead, it has declined overall in Africa.
Now a new version of the financing gap
theory is being used as the motif for the
present gearing-up of aid spending. The
leading economist Jeffrey Sachs, together
with others involved in the highly influential
UN Millennium Project, is advocating a “big
push” in public investments with the idea of
producing a knock-on effect on economic
growth in developing countries. But the really
poor countries, according to Sachs, are stuck
in a savings trap and do not have the
resources needed to make this development
push. The claim is that an additional $75bn in
development assistance could fill the gap.
This breathtakingly naïve view of aid and
economic growth in poor countries defies
basic economics and our acquired
knowledge of what works and what does
not. The history of aid clearly shows that
this type of assistance has been strikingly
inefficient and at times has proved more a
hindrance to development than a help.
So why is it that aid has failed to deliver
higher economic growth for developing
countries? There is no single answer; one has
to take several aspects of aid into account to
understand what has gone wrong, and how
our aid should be re-designed if it is ever to
achieve its targeted goals.
As a general rule, development aid has
not been spent in the way that was
intended. Instead of gearing-up
investments, the money has more often
than not been frittered away on current
spending and public consumption. Not only
is it difficult to find any positive effects as a
result of investment aid spending, but
worse the evidence suggests that aid has
actually had a negative effect on domestic
savings, and has thus weakened poor
countries’ ability to finance investments.
Several aid studies have also looked into
the issue of what economists call
fungibility; when aid intended for
investment was used for that purpose
recipient governments then reduced their
own investment spending in that area and
transferred those resources to additional
consumption, with the end-result of there
being no increase in a country’s net
investment. This pattern of fungibility has
also applied to aid that was intended for
spending on education and healthcare.
Aid has also contributed to corruption in
many developing countries. That is clearly not
the intention of aid, but the unintended
consequence of supporting corrupt
governments has been precisely that.
Furthermore, by supporting many state-owned
and para-statal enterprises, aid has boosted
corruption in more direct ways. These
enterprises have become arenas of rampant
corruption, and this has then spread to other
parts of society. The tragedy of aid that has
been revealed in a number of independent
evaluations and by World Bank research, is
that donors become part of corruption
problem by supporting regimes that erode the
governance structure. In those African
countries that have received a high level of aid
over time, this has become painfully obvious.
It has been sound economic policy, not
aid, that in recent decades has lifted billions
of Asians out of poverty and provided the
resources to combat, and in some countries
eradicate, starvation and many of the most
ravaging diseases. While Asian countries
were starting to open themselves up to trade
and foreign investment with the policies that
created the “Asian Tigers”, many African
countries were heading for a model of
economic autarky by closing their borders
and regulating the domestic economy to an
absurd degree. It is hardly surprising that this
was a development strategy that has failed
utterly. Yet western aid donors supported
these policies, and many of them are still
pouring money into countries whose
economic policies are detrimental to growth.
The good news, though, is that countries
are poverty-stricken because of bad policy,
not because of geography, an inferior
culture or any other deficiencies. Bad
policies can be changed; not by aid, but by
people insisting on change.
dwindling development assistance,
foreign aid is once again at centre
stage. Recent years have seen a flurry of
new aid initiatives – the UN Millennium
Development Goals, the Monterrey
Consensus, the UK’s Commission on Africa,
and the G8 pledge to double the amount of
aid, to mention only the most significant
ones. And before 2010, governments’
spending on aid, as measured by the OECD,
is projected at well above $100bn a year.
Much as these initiatives should be
applauded for shining the spotlight on
many neglected issues of poverty and
human hardships in developing countries,
they also need to be judged against a
backdrop of our accumulated knowledge of
what works and what does not. That has yet
to happen. Indeed, there has been
widespread neglect of the knowledge and
experience we have gained from aid-giving
over the last 50 years, and this constitutes
a key problem in the new drive for aid. There
is a discrepancy between the rush to
increase foreign aid and the general lack of
interest in the quality of aid, meaning its
effectiveness. This not only suggests a
mismanagement of public resources but
also an absence of curiosity about
establishing which are the best methods of
helping poor countries to develop.
This is not to say that we already have the
answers to all the mysteries of poverty, welfare
and foreign aid. But we do know a lot and have
garnered enough experience to say over the
last 50 years aid has failed overall to deliver the
sort of economic growth and development we
had hoped for. And the prospects for the
future doesn’t look much better.
Of the researchers who have studied the
links between aid and economic growth, few
have found conclusive evidence that aid
gives a major boost to growth. On the
contrary, most research suggests a negative
correlation between the two. This doesn’t
mean that receiving developing aid is the
cause of a country’s low growth. In both
cases, a cause-and-effect relationship is
difficult to find through broad statistical
cross-country analysis; several researchers
have employed advanced analytical
techniques but the results have varied from a
weak negative effect to a weak positive effect
(the latter after adjusting for the type of aid
and the policy milieu in recipient countries).
The sad overall conclusion that has to be
drawn is that development aid does not have
the stimulatory effect on growth that donor
countries have always intended.
A case in point is development aid to
Africa that has amounted to more than $1
trillion since 1950. Between 1970 and 1995,
aid to Africa increased rapidly, with aid
dependency (measured as the aid-to-GDP
ratio) standing at nearly 20% in the early
1990s. Measured another way, the mean value
of aid as a share of government expenditures
in African countries was well above 50%
during the 20-year period up to 1995. During
the same period, per capita GDP growth in
Africa decreased, so that many countries in
Africa are actually poorer today than they
were when they gained their independence.
This sad truth does little to support the
idea that development assistance is the
flywheel that starts the motor of economic
activity. But the argument continues to be
that aid is an essential part of the process of
attracting new investment and fuelling
sustained growth. Because poor countries
lack the resources to finance investments,
runs this argument, there is a financing gap
between domestic savings and the resources
needed to finance the level of investments
required to achieve growth. If the financing
gap theory of aid (yes, it is merely a theory)
had been true, investment levels would have
risen considerably and long-term growth
would have resulted. In that case, using the
models applied by the World Bank and other
donor organisations, per capita GDP in most
African countries should be at the same level
as in New Zealand, Spain or Portugal.
Instead, it has declined overall in Africa.
Now a new version of the financing gap
theory is being used as the motif for the
present gearing-up of aid spending. The
leading economist Jeffrey Sachs, together
with others involved in the highly influential
UN Millennium Project, is advocating a “big
push” in public investments with the idea of
producing a knock-on effect on economic
growth in developing countries. But the really
poor countries, according to Sachs, are stuck
in a savings trap and do not have the
resources needed to make this development
push. The claim is that an additional $75bn in
development assistance could fill the gap.
This breathtakingly naïve view of aid and
economic growth in poor countries defies
basic economics and our acquired
knowledge of what works and what does
not. The history of aid clearly shows that
this type of assistance has been strikingly
inefficient and at times has proved more a
hindrance to development than a help.
So why is it that aid has failed to deliver
higher economic growth for developing
countries? There is no single answer; one has
to take several aspects of aid into account to
understand what has gone wrong, and how
our aid should be re-designed if it is ever to
achieve its targeted goals.
As a general rule, development aid has
not been spent in the way that was
intended. Instead of gearing-up
investments, the money has more often
than not been frittered away on current
spending and public consumption. Not only
is it difficult to find any positive effects as a
result of investment aid spending, but
worse the evidence suggests that aid has
actually had a negative effect on domestic
savings, and has thus weakened poor
countries’ ability to finance investments.
Several aid studies have also looked into
the issue of what economists call
fungibility; when aid intended for
investment was used for that purpose
recipient governments then reduced their
own investment spending in that area and
transferred those resources to additional
consumption, with the end-result of there
being no increase in a country’s net
investment. This pattern of fungibility has
also applied to aid that was intended for
spending on education and healthcare.
Aid has also contributed to corruption in
many developing countries. That is clearly not
the intention of aid, but the unintended
consequence of supporting corrupt
governments has been precisely that.
Furthermore, by supporting many state-owned
and para-statal enterprises, aid has boosted
corruption in more direct ways. These
enterprises have become arenas of rampant
corruption, and this has then spread to other
parts of society. The tragedy of aid that has
been revealed in a number of independent
evaluations and by World Bank research, is
that donors become part of corruption
problem by supporting regimes that erode the
governance structure. In those African
countries that have received a high level of aid
over time, this has become painfully obvious.
It has been sound economic policy, not
aid, that in recent decades has lifted billions
of Asians out of poverty and provided the
resources to combat, and in some countries
eradicate, starvation and many of the most
ravaging diseases. While Asian countries
were starting to open themselves up to trade
and foreign investment with the policies that
created the “Asian Tigers”, many African
countries were heading for a model of
economic autarky by closing their borders
and regulating the domestic economy to an
absurd degree. It is hardly surprising that this
was a development strategy that has failed
utterly. Yet western aid donors supported
these policies, and many of them are still
pouring money into countries whose
economic policies are detrimental to growth.
The good news, though, is that countries
are poverty-stricken because of bad policy,
not because of geography, an inferior
culture or any other deficiencies. Bad
policies can be changed; not by aid, but by
people insisting on change.
Saturday, October 07, 2006
TURKEY IN OR OUT?

Politicians are again in the firing line again opinion polls inside Europe and Turkey are reporting declining support for the very idea that Ankara should join the European Union (EU) by 2015.
In fact opponents on both sides of the Aegean Sea utilise many of the same arguments in their case against Turkey joining as Europe’s first predominately Moslem Middle Eastern state.
On the European side there are distinct advantages in Ankara joining the EU, despite many European’s valid concerns and worries. But EU politicians should follow the advice of Italian political strategist Niccolo Machiavelli ‘take advantage out of a disadvantage.’ If the EU fails to implement the reforms required and make the necessary compromises in its negotiations over the role of the Turkish military and Cyprus, then the prospects of Turkey joining look increasingly doubtful.
Saturday, September 23, 2006
'Who do you think will win next year’s French presidential election?’
'Who do you think will win next year’s French presidential election?’ I said and added. ‘Will it be the socialist politician Ségolène Royal or the conservative one Nicolas Sarkozy?’ We had a heated discussion about the relative merits of these two candidates, their policies, scandals and this being France their love lives. What came out was that their nomination as their respective party’s presidential candidates was not a done deal. Trudy agued ‘if the old political dinosaurs in the Socialist Party, like Jack Lang, let Madame Royal win the parties nomination, then there dreams of ever becoming president are over.
“The same goes for Monsieur Sarkozy; President Chirac regards Nicolas as a traitor to his political legacy and too popular by half for his own good.’ She went on to explain she thought Chirac has adopted the uncharismatic French Prime Minister De Villepin as his political heir in his desperate attempts to stop Nicolas Sarkozy getting his party’s nomination. Robin commented ‘in France the early front runner usually does not make it to the final hurdle.’
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“The same goes for Monsieur Sarkozy; President Chirac regards Nicolas as a traitor to his political legacy and too popular by half for his own good.’ She went on to explain she thought Chirac has adopted the uncharismatic French Prime Minister De Villepin as his political heir in his desperate attempts to stop Nicolas Sarkozy getting his party’s nomination. Robin commented ‘in France the early front runner usually does not make it to the final hurdle.’
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Friday, September 01, 2006
Israel and Lebanon
In many ways the current situation in the Levant (ie. Isreal and Lebanon) is inevitable, given the power of the pro-Israeli lobby, in determining American policy in the area. We must live with the real politic and not some model of the world as we would wish it to be.
Egypt, Jordan and many in the Lebanese government have leant this hard lesson that it does not pay to oppose Israel on the battlefield. Instead, it pays to make a deal with Israel and the United States. Every year since 1979 Egypt has received over $2bn per annum and Jordan $500m a year. While the Lebanese government has had not much of a problem arranging foreign emergency aid since the August battles, already the EU have offered some €150m in emergency aid.
It is time Hamas and Hezbollah learnt this lesson, they should open negations’ immediately to make a financial deal. But this means they will have to transform themselves from rather disorganized militarily ineffectual terrorist groups, into respectable, democratic and not corrupt political parties, that the West can deal with.
Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland had to learn this lesson, it took courage and leadership, and hopefully Hamas and Hezbollah have the people to take such politically difficult decisions. In making such a deal, it is a win-win situation for the West and the people, Hamas and Hezbollah claim to represent. The poor in the West Bank, Gaza and Lebanon need the Western investment in economic development necessary to drag these people out of the despair of poverty, which nearly fifty years of conflict has not managed to do.
Respectability brings other benefits, being able to fight the pro-Israeli lobby in the US Congress and the world stage on a less unequal footing. While prosperity has proved a very effective weapon in undermining the influence of extremist terror groups, as both Britain found with the IRA and Spain discovered in its dealings with ETA.
As saying goes ‘aurea hamo piscari’ (money talks).
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Egypt, Jordan and many in the Lebanese government have leant this hard lesson that it does not pay to oppose Israel on the battlefield. Instead, it pays to make a deal with Israel and the United States. Every year since 1979 Egypt has received over $2bn per annum and Jordan $500m a year. While the Lebanese government has had not much of a problem arranging foreign emergency aid since the August battles, already the EU have offered some €150m in emergency aid.
It is time Hamas and Hezbollah learnt this lesson, they should open negations’ immediately to make a financial deal. But this means they will have to transform themselves from rather disorganized militarily ineffectual terrorist groups, into respectable, democratic and not corrupt political parties, that the West can deal with.
Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland had to learn this lesson, it took courage and leadership, and hopefully Hamas and Hezbollah have the people to take such politically difficult decisions. In making such a deal, it is a win-win situation for the West and the people, Hamas and Hezbollah claim to represent. The poor in the West Bank, Gaza and Lebanon need the Western investment in economic development necessary to drag these people out of the despair of poverty, which nearly fifty years of conflict has not managed to do.
Respectability brings other benefits, being able to fight the pro-Israeli lobby in the US Congress and the world stage on a less unequal footing. While prosperity has proved a very effective weapon in undermining the influence of extremist terror groups, as both Britain found with the IRA and Spain discovered in its dealings with ETA.
As saying goes ‘aurea hamo piscari’ (money talks).
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Wednesday, August 23, 2006
David Cameron - a case of keeping up appearances?
quote:
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Keeping up appearances
David Cameron needs to learn more about business
It will be interesting for excavation industry analysts to assess in the months ahead which investment did more to promote a well-known brand of British digger — its sponsorship of a 300mph yellow car streaking across Bonneville Salt Flats, Utah, in pursuit of the world land diesel speed record or its provision of a corporate jet to help an opposition politican move around the Indian sub-continent, opening a new plant in the process.
One project is eye-catching but irrelevant to the brand. The other is worthy but dull — or it would be if the politician were not David Cameron. Instead, his trip to India next month, paid for partly by JCB, has triggered an important debate before he even leaves the ground. Is his habit of corporate name-dropping an innocent by-product of his generous nature and background in public relations? Or is it evidence that even the prospect of power, contingent on an election still four years off, inevitably corrupts?
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To read more http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,542-2322949,00.html
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Keeping up appearances
David Cameron needs to learn more about business
It will be interesting for excavation industry analysts to assess in the months ahead which investment did more to promote a well-known brand of British digger — its sponsorship of a 300mph yellow car streaking across Bonneville Salt Flats, Utah, in pursuit of the world land diesel speed record or its provision of a corporate jet to help an opposition politican move around the Indian sub-continent, opening a new plant in the process.
One project is eye-catching but irrelevant to the brand. The other is worthy but dull — or it would be if the politician were not David Cameron. Instead, his trip to India next month, paid for partly by JCB, has triggered an important debate before he even leaves the ground. Is his habit of corporate name-dropping an innocent by-product of his generous nature and background in public relations? Or is it evidence that even the prospect of power, contingent on an election still four years off, inevitably corrupts?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
To read more http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,542-2322949,00.html
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Sunday, August 20, 2006
The Taxing Question of Overseas Property
The Taxing Question of
Overseas Property
Did you know that at least 257,000 Britons now own an overseas holiday home? With a strong pound and booming economy, it looks like many more of us are joining the likes of Cliff Richard and are buying a place in the sun. It appears, we ‘…British have beaten the Germans when it comes to throwing our metaphorical towels over foreign rooftops,’ says John Barnes, of Newfound Property International. But what a lot of Britons seem to forget, is that just because they are away from home, does not mean, that the taxman has forgotten them. It just means it won’t probably be British taxman you will be paying, but a foreign tax official.
For the buyer, it will not only be property prices and the location that will matter but, also, the respective tax regime of the foreign country of choice. Just as in Britain, owning a home abroad does not make you free from taxes for example such as Capital Gains Tax (CGT), Inheritance Tax and Tax on Rental Income in the country of your choice! Ro read more http://www.oxfordprospect.co.uk/Overseas property taxes.htm
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Overseas Property
Did you know that at least 257,000 Britons now own an overseas holiday home? With a strong pound and booming economy, it looks like many more of us are joining the likes of Cliff Richard and are buying a place in the sun. It appears, we ‘…British have beaten the Germans when it comes to throwing our metaphorical towels over foreign rooftops,’ says John Barnes, of Newfound Property International. But what a lot of Britons seem to forget, is that just because they are away from home, does not mean, that the taxman has forgotten them. It just means it won’t probably be British taxman you will be paying, but a foreign tax official.
For the buyer, it will not only be property prices and the location that will matter but, also, the respective tax regime of the foreign country of choice. Just as in Britain, owning a home abroad does not make you free from taxes for example such as Capital Gains Tax (CGT), Inheritance Tax and Tax on Rental Income in the country of your choice! Ro read more http://www.oxfordprospect.co.uk/Overseas property taxes.htm
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BULGARIA EUROPE’S FAILED STATE?
BULGARIA EUROPE’S FAILED STATE?
By Nicholas Newman Editor Oxfordprospect.co.uk
18 August 2006
Could Bulgaria fail to win entry at the final post in its race to join the European Union (EU) on 1st January 2007? Bulgaria is waiting with trepidation, a favourable report from the EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn in September and unanimous approval from all member states at an EU Council of Foreign Ministers meeting in 16th October at Lahti in Finland.
Despite the EU expressing optimism shown by EU Justice Commissioner Franco Frattini that Bulgaria is ‘on the right track’ even the Bulgarian Foreign Minister Ivaylio Kalfin admits that ‘there is still work to be done.’ What could delay Sofia’s entry are Bulgaria’s institutional failures to crack down on to key political policy areas – justice and home affairs. In a desperate attempt to ensure a favourable report from EU Commissioner Rehn the Bulgarian MPs ‘…have given up their traditional long summer break, sunning on the beaches to pass the major changes in the constitution to ensure the necessary reforms are in place,’ says National Assembly Chairman Georgi Pirinski and PM Sergei Stanishev has stated that already Bulgaria ‘has completed 70% of the planned legislation needed to meet the targets set in the accession treaty.’To read more http://www.oxfordprospect.co.uk/Bulgaria Europe's Failed State.htm
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By Nicholas Newman Editor Oxfordprospect.co.uk
18 August 2006
Could Bulgaria fail to win entry at the final post in its race to join the European Union (EU) on 1st January 2007? Bulgaria is waiting with trepidation, a favourable report from the EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn in September and unanimous approval from all member states at an EU Council of Foreign Ministers meeting in 16th October at Lahti in Finland.
Despite the EU expressing optimism shown by EU Justice Commissioner Franco Frattini that Bulgaria is ‘on the right track’ even the Bulgarian Foreign Minister Ivaylio Kalfin admits that ‘there is still work to be done.’ What could delay Sofia’s entry are Bulgaria’s institutional failures to crack down on to key political policy areas – justice and home affairs. In a desperate attempt to ensure a favourable report from EU Commissioner Rehn the Bulgarian MPs ‘…have given up their traditional long summer break, sunning on the beaches to pass the major changes in the constitution to ensure the necessary reforms are in place,’ says National Assembly Chairman Georgi Pirinski and PM Sergei Stanishev has stated that already Bulgaria ‘has completed 70% of the planned legislation needed to meet the targets set in the accession treaty.’To read more http://www.oxfordprospect.co.uk/Bulgaria Europe's Failed State.htm
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Monday, August 14, 2006
Do you know your Bulgarian?Or your АБВГД?
Do you know your Bulgarian?
Or your АБВГД?
By Nicholas Newman Editor Oxfordprospect.co.uk 14 August 2006
Probably not is the answer, but for translators in various European Union institutions, it is increasingly vital to have someone in your organisation that does. Especially, with the prospect of Bulgaria’s accession on 1st January 2007 only months away.
For the EU’s Directorate-General for Translation of the European Commission (DGT) which employs some 1650 and 550 support staff to translate some 1.3 million pages a year. The recruitment of the extra 60 translators that convert Bulgarian into any of the other 22 operational languages is proving challenging enough, especially with Bulgarian adding Cyrillic as the Union’s third official script after the Latin and Greek alphabets.
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Or your АБВГД?
By Nicholas Newman Editor Oxfordprospect.co.uk 14 August 2006
Probably not is the answer, but for translators in various European Union institutions, it is increasingly vital to have someone in your organisation that does. Especially, with the prospect of Bulgaria’s accession on 1st January 2007 only months away.
For the EU’s Directorate-General for Translation of the European Commission (DGT) which employs some 1650 and 550 support staff to translate some 1.3 million pages a year. The recruitment of the extra 60 translators that convert Bulgarian into any of the other 22 operational languages is proving challenging enough, especially with Bulgarian adding Cyrillic as the Union’s third official script after the Latin and Greek alphabets.
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Friday, August 11, 2006
Well done the security services!
Pakistani intelligence helped British security agencies crack a terrorist plot to blow up U.S.-bound aircraft, and has arrested two or three suspects in recent days, officials said Thursday.
“Pakistan played a very important role in uncovering and breaking this international terrorist network,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Tasnim Aslam. “Cooperation in this particular case was spread over a period of time. There were some arrests in Pakistan which were coordinated with arrests in the U.K.,” she said.
She declined to give details about the arrests, including the number of suspects, their identities or when they were arrested. But a senior government official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to comment on the matter, said “two or three local people” suspected in the plot were arrested a few days ago in Lahore and Karachi.
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“Pakistan played a very important role in uncovering and breaking this international terrorist network,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Tasnim Aslam. “Cooperation in this particular case was spread over a period of time. There were some arrests in Pakistan which were coordinated with arrests in the U.K.,” she said.
She declined to give details about the arrests, including the number of suspects, their identities or when they were arrested. But a senior government official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to comment on the matter, said “two or three local people” suspected in the plot were arrested a few days ago in Lahore and Karachi.
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Thursday, August 10, 2006
Heathrow
I'm astounded that so many people can question security regarding the hand luggage. My two girls go away with their grandmother in two weeks, if means they can not take their MP3 player or bottle of water on the plane, thats fine with me and i am sure OK with them too, as long as they arrive safely and return home safe, thats all that matters! some people really need to get a grip, i would prefer a delay and inconvenience rather than death. Thanks to staff and security. Dont let the bad guys win Praise God for our efficient Government and security.
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