'Who do you think will win next year’s French presidential election?’

'Who do you think will win next year’s French presidential election?’ I said and added. ‘Will it be the socialist politician Ségolène Royal or the conservative one Nicolas Sarkozy?’ We had a heated discussion about the relative merits of these two candidates, their policies, scandals and this being France their love lives. What came out was that their nomination as their respective party’s presidential candidates was not a done deal. Trudy agued ‘if the old political dinosaurs in the Socialist Party, like Jack Lang, let Madame Royal win the parties nomination, then there dreams of ever becoming president are over.

“The same goes for Monsieur Sarkozy; President Chirac regards Nicolas as a traitor to his political legacy and too popular by half for his own good.’ She went on to explain she thought Chirac has adopted the uncharismatic French Prime Minister De Villepin as his political heir in his desperate attempts to stop Nicolas Sarkozy getting his party’s nomination. Robin commented ‘in France the early front runner usually does not make it to the final hurdle.’
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Israel and Lebanon

In many ways the current situation in the Levant (ie. Isreal and Lebanon) is inevitable, given the power of the pro-Israeli lobby, in determining American policy in the area. We must live with the real politic and not some model of the world as we would wish it to be.



Egypt, Jordan and many in the Lebanese government have leant this hard lesson that it does not pay to oppose Israel on the battlefield. Instead, it pays to make a deal with Israel and the United States. Every year since 1979 Egypt has received over $2bn per annum and Jordan $500m a year. While the Lebanese government has had not much of a problem arranging foreign emergency aid since the August battles, already the EU have offered some €150m in emergency aid.



It is time Hamas and Hezbollah learnt this lesson, they should open negations’ immediately to make a financial deal. But this means they will have to transform themselves from rather disorganized militarily ineffectual terrorist groups, into respectable, democratic and not corrupt political parties, that the West can deal with.



Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland had to learn this lesson, it took courage and leadership, and hopefully Hamas and Hezbollah have the people to take such politically difficult decisions. In making such a deal, it is a win-win situation for the West and the people, Hamas and Hezbollah claim to represent. The poor in the West Bank, Gaza and Lebanon need the Western investment in economic development necessary to drag these people out of the despair of poverty, which nearly fifty years of conflict has not managed to do.



Respectability brings other benefits, being able to fight the pro-Israeli lobby in the US Congress and the world stage on a less unequal footing. While prosperity has proved a very effective weapon in undermining the influence of extremist terror groups, as both Britain found with the IRA and Spain discovered in its dealings with ETA.



As saying goes ‘aurea hamo piscari’ (money talks).



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